Death by Averages

Our Trackman-certified touring professional Freddie Lawrence discusses how PGA Tour statistics can be misleading and how Trackman can help.

This post is an opinion-piece written by our Trackman-certified Touring Professional Freddie Lawrence.

After the most recent PGA Tour event (the 2026 Bay current Classic that took place in Yokohama, Japan), the Tour average success rate on an 8-foot putt was 53.9%.
A quick Google search tells us putts in this range constitute ‘The Coin-Flip Zone’. In other words, from 8 feet, putting is essentially a 50/50 proposition for the best players in the world.
The ‘Coin-Flip Zone’ conclusion seems appropriate given the data. However I would argue the underlying data has been over-simplified and does not account for a multitude of relevant variables.
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AVERAGES NEGLECT DETAIL

The 8-foot putt success rate is based upon measured putts in tournament play. To be fair, this is helpful because the putts are executed under meaningful conditions for the players. Therefore, these data provide are flection of their tournament skills under pressure, which is interesting information to analyse.

  • But was the putt straight? We don’t know.
  • If there was slope, how severe was the slope? We don’t know.
  • Was the putt uphill or downhill? We don’t know.
  • Were the conditions windy? If so, how windy? We don’t know.
  • Was the putt downwind but uphill? Into the wind but downhill? We don’t know.
  • Was the putt to win a tournament, or to make a bogey on Thursday? We don’t know.

I could continue, but you get my point.

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WHAT DO TOUR STATISTICS ACTUALLY TEACH US?

The likelihood is that the PGA Tour average success rate from 8 ft is likely to rise on a straight putt in calm conditions on smooth greens, and fall on a breaking putt in tricky, windy conditions on bumpy greens.

The obvious argument against the point I’m making is that a large sample of putts are measured, and so the hope would be that the impact of varying influential factors would even out over time.

I understand this perspective and it’s true that PGA Tour players will hit many putts over the course of a season. However, they won’t actually hit that many from 8 feet.

For example, the Argentinian Emiliano Grillo is the current statistical leader in putting from 8 feet, having made 69.23% of his putts. He has only had 52 putts from this distance all season, making 36.

Other notables; Shane Lowry has only had 36 putts in total from 8 feet (making 23, 63.89% success rate). Rory McIlroy has had 37 putts all season from 8 feet (making 19, 51.35% success rate).

Grillo, Lowry and McIlroy have played 22, 18, and 14 events on Tour this season respectively. Therefore, each player will have, on average just over 2 8ft putts at each tournament (of course, averages are deadly, so at some tournaments they will have more and at others they’ll have zero!).

Let me stop spouting off numbers and get to my point.

The next time we are watching Emiliano Grillo on the PGA Tour and he steps over an 8ft putt, what does his 69.23% season success rate actually teach us to expect? I would argue it tells us to expect him to hole more putts on average than every other player on Tour, but not much else because we don’t know enough about that specific putt.

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AVERAGES ARE A GUIDE

Let’s make this observation relevant to our Trackman 4 units at the Centre of Golf Excellence St Andrews.

Trackman 4 allows us to gather averages for every metric. personally like using the Shot Analysis mode to collect my average yardages for every club in the bag.

However, I do so knowing the truth about averages; an average is a guide.

For example, say you hit 5 7-iron shots. Each shot carries 135,142, 149, 152, 156 yards respectively. Your average is 146.8 yards. But how many shots did you actually hit 147 yards? Zero.

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Trackman provides reports at the end of your practice session with both individual shot data and dispersion patterns available to view

The benefit of practicing using the Shot Analysis mode on Trackman that it gives you the ability to be able to collect individual data points (not just averages), that can be presented in a report and sent directly to your email account.

Much like the ‘Putts from 8ft’ statistic, averages help give us a snapshot of a golfer’s ability, but they are no substitute for the raw, multi-faceted data itself. The raw data Trackman provides gives you the full picture, and the basis to make smarter decisions and observations about your own game.

 

Book one of our Trackman simulators at the Centre of Golf Excellence to collect your own detailed club yardages today!
T: +44 (0)1334 611 466
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E: info@golfcx.co.uk